Here are the 5 key insights that stood out:

1- China-LATAM Relations: More Than Trade

While Bénédicte Kukla, Chief Strategist Indosuez France, gave a brief overview of the global macro stagflationary scenario under Trump, Francis Tan, Chief Strategist Asia based in Singapore highlighted the exponential growth of China-LATAM trade, now exceeding $500B annually. Beyond soybeans, copper, and oil, President Xi’s initiatives in education, development, and connectivity signal China’s intent to deepen long-term partnerships in the region.
 

2- US-LATAM Dynamics: Strategic Rebalancing

Our special guest Patryk Drozdzik, Senior EM Macro Strategist, Amundi London, noted LATAM’s long standing “equal distance” stance (on average) between the US and China is likely to evolve with three more distinctive blocs emerging: Mexico/Argentina leaning US, Chile staying neutral, and Brazil aligning with China/Global South. On US tariffs and Mexico: Short-term pain, long-term gain — The US needs Mexico for nearshoring and border security. USMCA is more likely to be renegotiated than dropped.
 

3- Tariff Tensions: Could Lula’s fight backfire?

“There is certainly no economic rationale for slapping 50% tariffs on a country like Brazil, which is running a trade surplus with the US,” said Patryk, “but there are so many political and personal reasons for these tariffs that, in some ways, I’m kicking myself for not seeing it.” Both administrations are likely to negotiate, though Lula may leverage the situation to bolster his political standing. With just 12% of Brazil’s exports heading to the US (mostly services), the broader impact is limited.
 

4- Equity Markets This Summer: A Cautious Optimism

Alexandre Drabowicz, Global Chief Investment Officer Indosuez Wealth Management, emphasized resilience in global equity markets despite geopolitical headwinds. A strong relief rally, driven by retail investors and corporate buybacks (projected to hit $1 trillion in 2025), underpins US market strength. However, with summer volatility likely, Indosuez sees opportunities to redeploy capital, particularly in US equities, where recent bank earnings reaffirm the resilience of the US consumer. As the saying goes, “Don’t fight the Fed” might just as well mean, “Don’t fight the US consumer.”
 

5- LATAM investments: Shining Amid USD Weakness

Patryk once again highlighted the strong performance of LATAM currencies, supported by a weaker USD and improved local policies. The Argentine peso remains stable for now but faces potential volatility before the elections in anticipation of a post-elections deval. A favourable political outcome could stabilize FX markets further, enhancing LATAM’s investment appeal. For global investors, LATAM remains an attractive zone, supported by potential monetary easing and upcoming elections that could usher in more business-friendly regimes.

These insights underscore the opportunities and challenges LATAM faces in navigating its evolving role between two superpowers. We remain committed to helping our clients make informed investment decisions in this dynamic landscape

To view the replay:

[EN] https://ca-indosuez.canalchat.fr/2025/11/en/
[PT] https://ca-indosuez.canalchat.fr/2025/11/pt/
[ES] https://ca-indosuez.canalchat.fr/2025/11/es/